新闻 · arXiv cs.AI

Calibrated e-CUSUM Decoding for Quantized Reasoning Models: Why Token Log-Probability Is the Wrong Observable for Decoding Monitors

Low-bit quantization makes small reasoning models inexpensive to deploy but can degrade their chains of thought. This motivates decoder-side monitors that intervene when generation becomes unreliable. We show that a natural candidate, the centered token log-probability increment $\log p(w_t)+H_t$, is the wrong observable for this purpose. Under the model's own sampling law it is a mean-zero martingale by construction, so it measures sampling self-consistency rather than trajectory health and is…